Dangerous in the Desert

The Diamondbacks are 3-2 and in 4th place in a competitive NL West, but a closer look at the Serpientes shows a team closer to the 2023 version than last year’s model.

As a team, they are hitting .298, anchored by a .389 BA in 21 plate appearances by Perdomo

They are striking out at a 17.4% clip (3rd best in MLB)

The offense has generated 2 WAR only 5 games into the season

The pitching has left a lot to be desired, giving up 26 runs in 5 games. That rate is not sustainable, but the small sample size has room for correction. 25 innings in 5 starts is likely not enough to make the playoffs, but pitching always takes a bit longer to get going than hitting does. 2 HR/9 is a much more startling stat from the starters and a 20.7 HR/FB rate doesn't bode well for games in Denver. However, The back of the bullpen is starting to come into focus with Thompson settling into a setup role while Puk and Martinez (the future for AZ) are leveraged in and out of the closer role.

Eugenio Suarez has only 5 hits on the season, and each has gone yard. NL player of the week to open the season, Suarez began campaigning for a repeat in Monday’s game against the Yankees, hitting a go ahead grand slam in the 8th inning.

Of course, you can’t win every game on a walk off grand slam, and doing so means that you have surrendered a sizable lead, but magical takedowns of Big Teams in big spots was a hallmark of the 2023 playoff run and something to watch for as the season gets hot.

Zac Gallen takes his second trip to the mound today following a disastrous first start. Carlos Rodon will oppose for the Yankees. I think the Yankees get to Gallen early and often. Give me the Yankees to win today.

Best bets:

Yankees -1.5 (+160)

Gallen 5+ hits allowed (+105)

Over 7.5 (-115)